The Non-Obvious Trend Report Archive
2011 Non-Obvious:
The report that started it all
The first Non-Obvious Trend Report introduced Likeonomics, a concept that later became a full book, and was among the first to predict the rise of content curation, real-time customer service through social media, and the brutal transparency embraced by brands like Domino’s and Southwest.
The Story Of The 2011 Report
The Backstory +
Retrospective
The first edition of the Non-Obvious Trend Report focused solely on marketing and social media trends. The report used a 20-page visual style and included a short description of the trend along with three or four stories to illustrate each one. Despite its limited scope, the report quickly went viral when it was released, being viewed more than 100,000 times in the first several weeks of publication alone. Some of the most popular trends introduced many firsts. The report was one of the first to predict the Rise of Curation, a precursor to the explosion of content marketing, and Instant PR & Customer Care, the rapid growth of real-time customer service through social media. It also defined the related trends of Brutal Transparency, Corporate Humanity, and Employees as Heroes, which all demonstrated a deeper level of transparency and humanity in marketing campaigns. The most popular trend from the first report was undoubtedly Likeonomics, the idea that people choose to do business with people they like. That popular concept inspired a book of the same title, which I wrote and published the following year.
Trend Longevity Ratings measure how well each prediction held up. Graded in 2026.
15 trends
The 2011 Trends
Trend 01 · 2011
Addictive Randomness
Brands increasingly will use the addictive power of random content to engage consumers. This will lead to more campaigns where consumers can add content to a central archive to browse.
Graded in 2026
While this idea might still be used selectively in campaigns, it is a good example of the sort of trend that we predicted early on that really should have been nothing more than an ingredient in a broader trend.
Trend 02 · 2011
App-fication of the Web
As more innovative apps let consumers bypass the web for transactions and leisure, many activities from online banking to online shopping will shift to apps instead of the Internet.
Graded in 2026
Apps have grown dramatically, but the idea of doing everything through apps never happened. Instead, responsive design has made it more important to allow anyone to use any size screen on any device.
Trend 03 · 2011
Approachable Celebrity
As social media allow direct access to previously unreachable celebrities, politicians, and athletes, we see more of their personalities, for better or worse, and can engage with them as real people.
Graded in 2026
Using social media to directly engage famous people has become easy, but that ease has forced celebrities to find new ways to manage the volume, filter cyberstalkers, and make themselves less approachable.
Trend 04 · 2011
Brutal Transparency
Aggressive honesty will lead to edgier and more effective marketing as brands reveal this unexpected tactic that consumers welcome.
Graded in 2026
The growth of social platforms and content marketing allows brands to share more truths about their business. While some may not be quite as "brutal," this honesty continues to build trust.
Trend 05 · 2011
Crowdsourced Innovation
Brands turn to crowdsourced platforms to collect ideas from consumers in exchange for the reward of recognition, financial earning, and simply being heard by the brands they purchase from every day.
Graded in 2026
The growth of platforms for idea generation to problem solving continue, but the original narrow brand-oriented focus of this trend failed to account for other types of marketplaces.
Trend 06 · 2011
Culting of Retail
The best retailers create passionate users who not only buy products, but also rave about their experiences. They inspire their social networks to try for themselves.
Graded in 2026
The rise of social media enables a continued cult-like belief in brands and a willingness from fans to not only spend money on products and services, but also act as an ambassador for the brand.
Trend 07 · 2011
Desperate Simplification
Information overload drives consumers to desperately seek simplicity, aiming for balance through activities such as defriending and finding basic products and sites to help simplify everything.
Graded in 2026
While "infobesity" persists, consumers' need for simplicity gives way to tools that focus on optimizing or curating instead of culling friendships or content. This trend continues but with less desperation.
Trend 08 · 2011
Employees As Heroes
Brands of all sizes aim to prove their humanity by emphasizing employees as the solvers of problems and creators of innovation. Such stories anchor the company's mission in the world.
Graded in 2026
This trend has expanded far beyond the tech firms initially featured as employees are increasingly valued in ads, showcased by brands with high loyalty, and seen as visible and important ambassadors for a brand.
Trend 09 · 2011
Essential Integration
Marketers' biggest problem continues to be integrating efforts, which can be hard with few good examples. Yet the biggest successes feature a new level of integration that is still rare in the marketing world.
Graded in 2026
During the past four years, integration becomes an even greater issue and daily struggle for marketers. With more tools and platforms to assist, this has become less of a trend and more of a standard practice.
Trend 10 · 2011
Instant PR & Cust Service
Real-time contact becomes essential as communications teams focus on instant PR to manage social crises and augment customer service with methods to deal with problems in the here and now.
Graded in 2026
Customer service through social channels has grown dramatically, but today it is not solely driven by negative situations (as originally predicted) but rather used as a tool for positive engagement as well.
Trend 11 · 2011
Likeonomics
Brands, products, and services succeed by being more human, mission driven, and personally likeable through their policies and people, gaining an advantage over less empathetic competitors.
Graded in 2026
The fundamental truth of human relationships underlying this trend keeps growing as more brands focus on building personal connections with customers and being consistently likeable.
Trend 12 · 2011
Locationcasting
More consumers choose to broadcast their locations, enabling brands to tailor messages to a specific site and create more opportunities to engage their customers in real life.
Graded in 2026
Mobile marketing increasingly offers geotargeting options. However consumers continue to be wary of privacy concerns and worry about the potential for "geospamming" as they walk down the street.
Trend 13 · 2011
Reimagining Charity
Brands and entrepreneurs create innovative new models for social good, reinventing how people can do everything from donating money to sharing time and specific skills.
Graded in 2026
This trend reflected a dramatic growth in how nonprofits and charities used digital tools. While this has continued, the efforts are more commonplace and less of a "redefinition."
Trend 14 · 2011
Rise of Curation
Brands increasingly use curation as a much-needed filter to help find and bring together useful or entertaining content to win more trust and attention from consumers.
Graded in 2026
This trend successfully anticipated the explosion of content marketing and the importance for brands to focus on sharing expertise generously online with their consumers as a way to grow trust.
Trend 15 · 2011
Visualized Data
To make sense of a real-time stream of information, more event managers, news organizations, and brands turn to visualization to leverage data, better understand it, and tell a clearer story.
Graded in 2026
The widespread overuse of infographics has created more skepticism of visualization, but better user interfaces, gamified design, and narrative storytelling continue to stand out and attract attention.

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