Trend Longevity Rating
persisted in a diminished form but never proved its value
How this trend held up
This is the trend that aged worst, and the book itself predicted why. Workplace wellness incentive programs persisted through the 2010s and 2020s — insurer point-and-perks apps and ACA-authorized premium discounts still exist — but the evidence for their effectiveness never materialized. A large, rigorously designed 2019 workplace-wellness study out of Illinois found no significant effect on health outcomes or medical spending after a year, echoing the skepticism the book's own sources (RAND, and critics like Bonnie Henry and Michael Fergusson) voiced back in 2013. The gamification impulse survived mostly in diluted form — closing your Apple Watch activity rings — rather than as the rewards economy the chapter envisioned.
Every past trend prediction is re-reviewed and graded with a Trend Longevity Rating, measuring how much each originally curated trend still matters years later.
